Solar cycle activity: A preliminary prediction for cycle #24
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Fair space weather for solar cycle 24
[1] We discuss the polar field precursor method of solar activity forecasting, first developed 3 decades ago. Using this method the peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (24) is estimated at 124 ± 30 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 80 ± 30 in terms of smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). This may be regarded as a ‘‘fair space weather’’ long term forecast. To su...
متن کاملSolar Cycle Prediction
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the sta...
متن کاملPredicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model.
Whether or not the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by "feeding" observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 reasonably well and predict that cycle 24 will be abo...
متن کاملA synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques
A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of t...
متن کاملSolar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24
The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind s...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Astronomy & Astrophysics
سال: 2003
ISSN: 0004-6361,1432-0746
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361:20031295